Oscars 2017:
BEST PICTURE
Who Will/Should Win: La La Land
Dark Horse: Moonlight
This year ‘La La Land’ has dominated nearly every award show, and with it’s catchy songs, great performances, and a solid romance story, this ode to the great musicals of the 40’s and 50’s will easily win best picture. The only surprise might be the powerful and touching drama ‘Moonlight’, about an urban raised black child growing up to a broken life and discovering who he is. It’s a great film, however it’s a safe bet that the Oscars will give all it’s love (deservingly so) to ‘La La Land’.
BEST DIRECTOR
Who Will/Should Win: Damian Chazelle (La La Land)
Just watch the first five minutes of ‘La La Land’, and you can immediately see the vision director Damian Chazelle wants to create in this film, giving a modern-day homage turned post-modern movie musical that is stunning, heart-breaking, and leaves a lasting impact well after the movie ends. He isn’t satisfied just giving us a great musical film that’s about following your dreams, but to reinforce the power that movies have to make the audience want to follow thier dreams as well. Having won pretty much all the big awards he’s been nominated for, it would be a shock if he didn’t win director.
BEST ACTOR:
Who Will/Should Win: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Dark Horse: Denzel Washington (Fences)
One can’t really talk about why he deserves the Oscar without seeing this heart-breaking scene (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J30cS-dusjI). Playing an uncle whose forced to come back to his hometown to take care of his nephew after his brother dies, the performance throughout the film is so subtle but tragic, playing the shell of who he once was, its easily the best performance this year. However, having won the SAG award, Denzel Washington may provide the upset, winning his second best actor Oscar for playing a grizzled from Baseball player turned garbage collector. It’s a strong performance, however my money will be on Affleck for the win.
BEST ACTRESS:
Who Will/Should Win: Emma Stone (La La Land)
Between the singing, dancing, and falling in love with Ryan Gosling, Emma Stone’s performance in ‘La La Land’ also has a lot of heart and soul, as she plays a struggling actress trying to make it big in Hollywood. Watching her sing the one take song “The Fools who Dream” during an audition is powerful, showing that nothing will stop her determination to succeed, even as she struggles between love and her dreams. Emma Stone is the anchor that keeps the audience connected to the film, and she deserves the award this year.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who Will/Should Win: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Dark Horse: Dev Patel (Lion)
Playing a crack dealing father figure to the central character of Moonlight, Ali creates a character that we should hate, but he is played with such warmth we can’t help but feel a respect for the good things he does. For the limited screentime, so much is conveyed just by the smallest of looks. However, Dev Patel’s great performance in Lion as an adopted Indian man dedicated to trying to find his birth mother is really terrific, and might lead to a surprise upset, however all signs are leading to Mahershala Ali winning this year.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who Will/Should Win: Viola Davis (Fences)
This is the easiest pick this year, as Davis has won every award there is playing the wife of a hard to deal with husband who she loves and hates, eventually having to deal with his infidelity. Davis has been nominated for her breakthrough ‘Doubt’ (she was in the film for about 5 minutes, and it was so good she was nominated still), and ‘The help’ which she should have won, so this is a long overdue Oscar for her. Really there is no competition this year against her, so it is the best bet to win this year.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
What Will Win/Should Win: Manchester By the Sea
Dark Horse: La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan’s script is filled with great character moments, harrowing drama that’s amazingly well written (see the Casey Affleck Youtube clip above), and even some moments of honest subtle comedy. It’s a richly drawn out story that seems simple on the outside, but as the layers begin to peel back, becomes a really good film about loss and confronting your past. Really there’s no other nomination that could be any competition, so Lonergan should easily win this Oscar. However, in the event ‘La La Land’ sweeps the Oscars this year (no film has done that since ‘Slumdog Millionaire’ in 2009), it may also win screenplay as well as it won the Golden Globe. It’s extremely unlikely though, so my final pick is going to ‘Manchester by the Sea.’
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
What Will/Should Win: Moonlight
Dark Horse: Arrival, or Lion
This is a tougher category to choose, and although ‘Moonlight’ has won nearly every screenplay nomination (rightly so) as it chronicles over 30 years of the main character’s life and struggles (both about himself, and those he is connected to), I think it’s the best script and will ultimately win. However there is some stiff competition from the equally as good ‘Arrival’, which continues the streak of really intelligent sci-fi films lately as it deals with a realistic approach of how to communicate with an alien species, and how the world would react to aliens arriving on earth. It’s probably the most intelligent script of this year and equally moving. The only other (and this is a far off chance) is that ‘Lion’ steals the thunder and surprises with a win for it’s story of a young adopted man trying to find his Indian birth mother. ‘Lion’ was heart-breaking and powerful, however my guy is going with the slightly better ‘Moonlight’ to win.
BEST EDITING
What Will/Should Win: La La Land
Editor Tom Cross was one of the random picks I thought would win for ‘Whiplash’ a few years ago that no one else really predicted, and I’m going to bet he will win again. The strength of ‘La La Lands’ editing is not in the musical moments, but the rhythm of the romance as the film goes through the 4 seasons, making sure both main characters get equal weight in the story without the film feeling different when cut with the great single take musical numbers. The editing rarely has any quick cuts, letting the story and the characters fall in love slowly through the scenes. Where the editing picks up is in the fantastic montage sequences, especially near the end of the film, that captures so much through the camerawork and editing that could only be done in a movie, literally encompassing an entire life in only a few minutes.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
What Will/Should Win: La La Land
La La Land’s awesome, ultra-widescreen cinematography is completely deserving to win for multiple reasons: It’s great use of lighting and color; the fantastic one shot musical numbers that are awe inspiring; great compositions, and a wonderful blurring of the real vs magical in the film. There are shots you could print out and hang on your wall, that’s how great they are to look at, and with the great use of widescreen that emulates the great musicals of the 50’s, ‘La La Land’s amazing camerawork will win the Oscar easily.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
What Will Win: La La Land
What Should Win: Arrival (or Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them)
With some stunning sets (the planetarium, the wonderful montage at the end) mixed in with the ordinary, ‘La La Land’ effectively blends the magic of the movies with a sense of contemporary realism, allowing the audience to get sucked into the director’s vision more seamlessly than any other musical I’ve seen recently. However, for crafting a realistic depiction of a world where aliens are making first contact with our planet, ‘Arrival’ did a fantastic job, making it all seem completely realistic, in a way a sci-fi movie hasn’t done since ‘Blade Runner’. Another well-deserved upset could be the awesome 1920’s New York depiction in ‘Fantastic Beasts’, mixing history with fantasy, and it would be overdue Stuart Craig, the same production designer responsible for all the Harry Potter films, to be validated for the amazing sets he has built. Ultimately, I think this will be one ‘La La Land’ will win.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
What Will/Should Win: Jackie
Dark Horse: La La Land
I do think this is a category that ‘La La Land’ could upset in, however in the past this has gone to fantasy/period films. With it’s incredibly accurate 60’s look, the costumes easily recreate the world of JFK and Jackie Kennedy, ‘Jackie’ should win this easily.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
What Will/Should Win: La La Land
The first singing, dancing, musical complete with original songs? You bet this will be an easy win for ‘La La Land’, but it’s not just the great songs, the score itself is able to emulate the classic 50’s musical scores, but also is able to literally tell the entire emotion of the particular scene. Watch the final montage in the end, nothing but music and visuals, yet the music doesn’t try to manipulate the audience’s emotions, but rather enhances the story and the relationship between the characters.
BEST SOUND
What Will/Should Win: La La Land
Dark Horse: Arrvial
Musicals always own the sound category, and between the great songs, the music, the jazz scenes, the film’s quieter moments are also perfectly mixed together in the film, making it a easy winner this year. However, ‘Arrival’s subtle sound work might steal the show, as it really enforces different moods, especially in the flashback scenes. Ultimately, I can’t see ‘La La Land’ losing this.
SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
What Will/Should Win: Hacksaw Ridge
War movies are always favored to win in this category, and really I can’t see another film steal it from Hacksaw Ridge this year between the gunfire and explosions that fill the second half of the movie.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
What Will/Should Win: The Jungle Book
Having seen this film in IMAX, I didn’t expect to see effects so realistic, finally succeeding in having animals talk, emote, and give a fully realistic performance. VFX supervisor Rob Legato (who won for Hugo, and Titanic), and it’s safe to argue that the films effects turned what should have been a terrible film idea into one of the best films I’ve seen in 2016, crafting a completely real world that Mowgli inhabits.
The rest:
Best Animated film: Zootopia
Best Song: City of Stars (La La Land)
Best Documentary: OJ: Made in America
Make up: Star Trek Beyond
Live Action Short: Sing
Animated Short: Piper
Documentary Short: 4.1 Miles
Foreign Language Film: The Salesman
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